Will the United States Survive the Global Crisis? | OilPrice.com

US natural gas prices rose 13-year high last week as energy prices rose sharply in Europe and Asia. And according to winter weather, U.S. natural gas prices do Have more space to get up. However, analysts say the rise in gas prices in Europe and the United Kingdom and the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia are unlikely to follow.

Although regional natural gas markets are now more interconnected thanks to LNG trade, US gas prices remain highly volatile and remain highly competitive in Europe and Asia.

The United States has an adequate supply of natural gas in storage before winter. Unlike in Europe, this weakening of resources and the need for recovery have led to a slowdown in storage during the coldest months of the year, leading to a breakdown in supply and high prices for gas and energy.

In addition, U.S. natural gas production is growing slightly, with more than a week’s worth of injections per week over September.

Despite LNG prices in Asia and good netbacks that US exporters are getting for their LGG cargo, the United States has limited capacity to supply gas to LNG export terminals. All available commodities are mostly imported in Asia, but the infrastructure does not allow the large amount of LNG to leave the United States, which greatly strengthens the domestic US market.

Record Global Gas Prices

Last week in European natural gas prices a New record high Barrel oil with $ 205, depending on the relative cost of energy from each source. In the wake of the worsening global energy crisis, shipping costs to North Asia increased by 40 percent last Wednesday, with Asian LNG prices rising. Million Dollars in British Heat exchangers– High record of winning Previous record The week before $ 34.52 / mmBtu

U.S. natural gas prices in non-violent global markets have also responded to these high-profile records. Price of Henry Hub It sits at 6.312 / mmBtu on October 5 – the highest level since 2008.

Since the beginning of 2021, demand has returned from a decline in the epidemic, with U.S. manufacturers doubling gas supplies, and U.S. manufacturers not rushing to increase supply much.

US from “Global Gas Crisis”, Spice

However, U.S. prices — although currently influenced by global gas prices — are largely due to domestic demand and the growing global LNG. As a result, natural gas prices in the United States are more vulnerable to global dropouts, even if they are higher in the winter.

According to Meryl Lynch, head of global banking, equities and investor investment strategies, the United States is far from this global energy trend. CNBC’s “Exchange” recently.

In fact, analysts now expect US natural gas prices to be higher than previous forecasts due to global energy congestion and natural gas prices. JP Morgan and Credit Suisse recently increased their Q4 average prices to $ 5.50 / mmBtu and $ 5.75 / mmBtu, respectively.

The double-digit Henry Hub price is on the cards if the winter is too cold, but a hurdle similar to Europe and Asia is unthinkable for the United States, Tortocofin Managing Director Robert Tumel told CNBC last week.

“[The U.S.] It didn’t have to rely on the rest of the world to deliver, and that’s really a European problem, ”Tumel said.

It is also home to the LNG in Asia.

“There is not enough infrastructure on either side – they are not going to save America,” Tumel told CNBC.

No matter how much Asian LNG prices increase, the current capacity in the United States will be able to convert 10.5 billion cubic feet (BCF / D) of gas per day to LNG. Natural gas supplies to US LNG export facilities typically averaged 10.0 Bcf / d – 10.5 Bcf / d, out of a total of 92.3 Bcf / d of total US dry natural gas production.

The U.S. gas supply is sufficiently high compared to the European, Asian cranes

The United States has an adequate supply of natural gas, and although the injection period between April and October saw below net needles in the stockpile, recent weekly stockpiles have exceeded this year’s average.

The net injection in the warehouse is 118 BCF for the week ending October 1, compared to the average five-year net worth of 81 BCA and 75 BCC for the previous year. EIA data displayed.

This week’s weekly build is expected to be slightly higher than the five-year average again and again over 100 BCM. NatGasWeather.com, And predicts low and very low demand for this week.

U.S. natural gas prices are not completely different from global energy turmoil, but the United States will survive higher prices.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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