Why the Earth Course Correction Now?

The impact of the CVD-19 epidemic on human life and the economy depends on our willingness to deal with environmental disasters with global consequences. The key to saving lives and making communities more resilient to such threats is to focus on efficient, scientific decision-making at all levels of society. And one of the most serious dangers that science can explain and mitigate is the effects of human climate change.

To reduce those risks, the Paris Agreement aims to implement nearly 200 countries’ global greenhouse gas emissions reduction policies since pre-industrial times and below 200 degrees Celsius, and is working to further limit that increase. Up to 1.5 c. Avoid the worst consequences, realizing that the first set of Parisian covenants, known as National Certified Contributions (NDCs), is not enough to put the world on the right track to achieve those long-term goals. Climate change, the agreement calls on participating countries to strengthen the NDC from time to time. To that end, the United States and a handful of other countries have set strong emissions targets for 2030 at a virtual climate summit convened by President Joe Biden in April.

In this ongoing global effort to support decision-makers engaged in stabilizing or influencing climate change, the MIT Joint Program outlines the 2021 Global Vision for Change in Science and Policy. Based on strong and integrated analysis of population and economic growth, technological change, NDCs, COV-19 impacts and other factors, the report provides the latest forecasts for future joint plans for the Earth’s energy, food, water and climate systems. And the Paris Agreement promises to achieve short-term and long-term climate goals.

The current (starting March 2021) forecasts of a “Paris Eternal” situation in which the NDC will remain permanently. Paris 2C Stopping global warming by 2100. And two conditions – “accelerated action” (Includes new US target for 2030) And Paris 1.5 cmThis allows the temperature to rise to 2100 and up to 1.5 ° C. Limits. Uncertainty is a set of 400 members predictions for each situation. This year’s perspective introduces a visual tool that can be used to examine the first three conditions in a high-quality way.

Power

More aggressive emissions reduction policies will accelerate the transition from fossil fuels and renewable energy sources by 2050.

Forever in Paris, the share of fossil fuels in the world’s energy mix has now dropped from 80 percent to 70 percent, wind and sun about six times as much and natural gas by 50 percent, and electric vehicles (EVs) account for 38 percent less than LVV. Ships. In Paris 2C, the share of fossil fuels will drop by about 50 percent, wind and solar power will increase by nine times and natural gas consumption will increase by 25 percent, and EVs will account for 50 percent of the world’s LVV ships. Accelerated action further depletes fossil fuels and makes two-thirds of the world’s LDVs electric.

“By 2050, renewable energy will be the main source of energy for all conditions, providing 70-80 percent of the world’s energy in the middle of the twentieth century,” he said. The report. “Climate policies are essentially eliminating the coal-based generation, and natural gas still plays a major role in supporting renewable energy. Resolving long-term energy storage issues is critical to overall decorbonation.

Water and food

Forever in Paris, agriculture and food production will continue to grow. This increases pressure on land use, water use and energy-intensive use, which in turn leads to higher greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) emissions. The situation in Paris 2C has had a negative impact on agricultural and food production trends by the middle of the century. Although economic growth tends to shift demand to more protein-rich food sources, the high carbon costs associated with animal production will reduce demand, lower prices, and such impacts will be passed on to the food sector.

According to the Paris Forever, more than half of the world’s population will be under pressure by 2050, and three out of 10 people will live in pools, combining social and environmental pressures on water resources. Much of the expected increase in water stress over half a century cannot be eliminated or reduced by climate change alone. Globally, population growth, economic growth, and related water needs are often the challenge of sustainability: one can only reverse the dramatic changes in storage capacity, transmission, and water efficiency.

Climate and Paris Goals

A view shows the current gap (as of March 2021) between GHG emissions-reduction obligations and the need for the Paris Agreement to put the world on the right track to achieve its long-term climate goals.

“Our global global response to climate change in Paris will definitely exceed critical GH concentration constraints and climate goals in the coming decades,” said C-Schemler, co-author of the report. .

Forever in Paris, global warming in 2065, 2.8 C in 2100 and 4.1 C in 2150 will increase global warming by 2C. While many countries have made good progress on their AndCs and have set massive GHG emissions targets, funding is not at the level needed to support low-growth countries in sustainable development.

According to the report, the Paris Agreement may achieve long-term climate goals, but it comes with a variety of risks. The situation in Paris 2C shows the possibility of ignoring even the “cool” roads below 1.5C at the end of the session. Paris’s 1.5C, however, can assure the world that global warming will remain below 2C.

An important effect of climate change is the change in rainfall patterns. From now until 2050 in Paris forever, global rainfall could increase by 1.5 cm per year – approximately 7,400 cubic kilometers (or 2 quadrillion gallons) per year. At 2100 the total rainfall change could rise to 4 cm / year (or 21,200 km)3(Year) – The median change is about three times. Paris 2C will increase world rainfall by half, and Paris 1.5C will reduce the global increase to about one-third. These aggressive mitigation measures significantly reduce flood risk and associated adaptation costs.

Reducing climate risk

For the first time, the perspective addresses two well-known risk factors for climate change. Detailed research in this report indicates that high-risk physical disasters will continue to improve over the course of the century, from high-risk transitions to political, technological, social, and economic landscapes. To a low carbon economy.

Ronald Prince, director of the MIT Joint Program Program, said: Decision makers in government, industry and financial institutions can play a key role in moving us further along this path.

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