Trump and Bobbert Oil Spin – FactCheck.org

The United States has continued to import less oil from the Middle East, part of the decades-old trend under President Joe Biden.

The United States imports most of its oil from Canada. 9.8% (mostly crude oil) of U.S. oil imports According to the US Energy Information Administration, they are from the Persian Gulf countries by 2020. It dropped by about 6.6% in the first five months of 2021.

But during a rally in Alabama on August 21, former President Donald Trump said the United States had reached the level of “we don’t need the Middle East.” And now, he says, “We will ask them for help and we will return to them.”

Republican Rep. Lauren Bobbert similarly Revealed on Twitter That “During Trump’s time, we sent American troops abroad. We are back in the Middle East again under Biden.

Trump’s “Middle East” assistance is a reference to a White House statement calling for OPEC to pump more oil to reduce oil prices in the United States.

“OPEC + has recently agreed to increase production, but OPEC + will not fully compensate for the previous cuts made by the outbreak until 2022,” said National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan. This is simply not enough when international recovery is critical.

The ad has been criticized by some conservatives and activists. According to Trump, Beiden is now “begging OPEC for more production on the road.”

Although Trump and Roberts use the term “power,” Bob’s press secretary, Jack Cetel, tells us that it refers to the balance between imports and exports in the United States.

Petroleum imports and exports

According to the EIA Petroleum and Petroleum Products Report, the U.S. It exports about 8.5 million barrels of oil by 2020, with 7.9 million barrels a day. 1949. ”

“The United States will produce more oil than it exports in 2021 and 2022,” Sefer said, citing a February 17 IIA forecast.

“Instead of controlling the U.S. energy market, Biden’s national security adviser Called To increase oil production at OPEC, ”Settle said in an email. Instead of pursuing President Trump’s policies that have turned the United States into a power-free country, the Bidden administration is making the United States rely on OPEC and Middle East energy security.

The EIA report, however, did not mention any bidding policies that would shift the balance of oil exports by 2021 and 2022 to a net import balance. Instead, the report said in February, “mostly because of declining domestic oil production and an increase in imports. ”

The decline in domestic crude oil production was due to “a decline in drilling activity associated with low oil prices,” the IAA reported in January. “Responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a breakdown in supply and demand,” the report said.

In fact, the AAAA predicted that it would import more oil than it exports from April 2020 to 2021 and 2022: in the first monthly forecast, the US COVID-19 response measures will take into account the expected economic results. That year (and long before Trump left office).

EAA, Short Term Energy Condition, April 2020 The EIA’s drastic measures, which have significantly reduced all types of travel due to economic and trade disruptions due to COVID-19, will significantly reduce most U.S. liquid fuel consumption by 2020. These effects are expected to be most pronounced during the second quarter of 2020, when most impacts and large-scale declines in business are in place. The EIA expects most of these effects to continue until 2020, but in the second half of 2020, EIA expects liquid fuel consumption to increase from these low levels as some businesses resume and in-house orders gradually ease. Increased U.S. liquid fuel consumption in the second half of 2020 will push the United States to return as a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020 and remain a net importer for most of the month. Prediction time.

In other words, the global forces associated with the epidemic – not the US federal policy – are expected to make a difference in the import and export of petroleum.

A Aug. 16 letter, led by James Inhofe and signed by 23 other Republican senators, criticized the Binding administration for reaching out to OPEC to increase oil supplies: ”

The letter, in part, referred to Beiden’s key stone XL pipeline (including Canada’s oil production) and executive orders issued on January 27: A comprehensive review and review of federal oil and gas licenses and lease practices.

On that day, he said, “We will review and launch an oil and gas lease program.”

However, in March, when the Binden administration examined the effects of the federal lease, which would allow oil producers to continue operating under existing leases, it concluded that the overall effect would be minimal. The termination only applies to new rents.

“There may be no results until 2022 because there is an estimated long-term lease delay of up to eight to ten months in coastal areas and beaches,” the EIA report said. Including this change, US crude oil production will decrease by an average of 0.1 million barrels per day by 2022.

To that end, the United States produces 11.2 million barrels of crude oil a day in May. In any case, the federal judge’s ban in June is expected to reduce U.S. oil production by less than 1% next year.

According to the IIF graph below, by the beginning of 2020, before the outbreak, exports were higher than imports. Outbreaks appear to be exacerbated during trade. Meanwhile, imports were relatively stable.

Looking at the bigger picture, however, the trend lines show a sharp decline in net petroleum imports back to the mid-2000s and a steady closing in the gap between U.S. oil consumption and production.

In the first year of Biden’s presidency, the forecast to be slightly lower than the import line will have little effect on those big trends – as long as the United States suddenly becomes dependent on oil in the Middle East. Months ago, it was called Freedom.

Importers from the Persian Gulf countries

The United States imports less oil than Trump’s Persian Gulf. And the oil imports from the Middle East – which have been declining for decades – are declining.

In the first five months of 2021, the United States imported 536,400 barrels of crude oil and petroleum products from the Persian Gulf. This By 2020, the US imports an average of 767,166 barrels from those countries by 30%, and by an average of 44%, compared to 2019. (Persian Gulf states Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates)

A.D. By 2020, about 9.8% of US oil imports (mostly crude oil) came from the Persian Gulf, according to the EIA. It dropped by about 6.6% in the first five months of 2021.

However, the Persian Gulf states still produce about one-third of the world’s oil (27.5% according to the latest IAA data), and therefore have a significant impact on global oil prices. The United States, by comparison, exported 20 percent of the world’s oil in April.

Goods from OPEC countries

Trump and Bobbert have the same story if they mean the OPEC nations rather than the Persian Gulf states.

There are 15 OPEC countries, including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, but there are also non-OPEC countries such as Nigeria, Ecuador and Venezuela. These countries, which produce about 40 percent of the world’s oil, often work as cartoons to influence global oil prices.

A.D. In 2021, the average monthly income of OPEC countries to the United States decreased by more than 10 percent compared to 2020 (see Table 3.3a). In 2020, about 11.3% of US oil imports came from OPEC countries. In the first five months of 2021, it is about 9.8%.

That is part of a long-term trend.

The EIA wrote in May: “Between 2005 and 2020, U.S. crude oil imports expedited rapidly from OPEC members, while imports from non-OPEC members were relatively high. In particular, US crude oil exports to Canada more than doubled to 3.6 million B / d by 2020, more than the total amount of crude oil exported from other countries.

In fact, the EIA reported in another report in May: It will reach 61% by 2020. ” According to the report, US imports from Canada have declined since April 23, 2021. “At the same time, imports from OPEC members decreased by 46 percent,” states the report. Voluntary reduction in OPEC production is contributing to the importation of American crude oil from OPEC members.

Nevertheless, OPEC is a major driver of global oil prices affecting US gas stations.

Davin C. Gladden, AAA’s national federal affairs manager, said: Since its inception in 1960, OPEC has played a major role in the price of oil (and the continued price of petroleum products). ” . Since then, no presidential or federal policies, except for oil embargoes and lifts, have been able to curb the impact of global energy prices.

A.D. The Energy Policy and Conservation Act signed by President Gerald Ford in 1975 banned all US crude oil exports. Congress lifted the ban in 2015 by then-President Barack Obama.

During the Binden administration, total exports so far were above average during the Trump administration, with Samantha Gross, director of energy safety and climate initiative at the Brookings Institution, and director of the International Bureau of Energy and Climate Energy at the Department of Energy. He told us by email under Obama.

“The real issue here is more than anything the two administrations have done – it’s about global oil prices,” Gros said. “Presidents can’t do much to control those. They are in the world market, even though politicians suffer when oil prices go up. As swing manufacturers, OPEC decisions make a difference here and that is why presidents often try to produce more to lower OPEC prices. Not because we were dependent on the Middle East last year. ”

“As the global economy recovers from VV, OPEC refuses to increase production significantly,” Gros added in an email. At the time of the outbreak, prices were hurting and they did not want to continue to trade. American manufacturers are also backing up and increasing production. This has nothing to do with Trump or Biden’s policies – it’s all about markets and prices.

A.D. It should be noted that in 2019, Trump also criticized OPEC for manually banning production to increase global gas prices.

“OPEC, please relax and unwind. The world can’t take inflation – weak! The incumbent president took to Twitter in February 2019.

But In the wake of the 2020 pandemic, Trump was advising OPEC in the other direction, urging OPEC members to cut production because lower world prices hurt U.S. producers.

In both cases, Trump and Biden acknowledged that OPEC had a relatively small supply of oil to the United States, but that OPEC had a significant impact on the global oil market.

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