The IAA has reduced global oil demand, price forecasts

The U.S. official said it was reviewing its price target for 2021-2022.

The global energy demand for 2021 and 2022 will be lower than previously forecast for travel restrictions, and the US Energy Information Administration said it is lowering its price target for 2021-2022.

Although below the expected increase in demand, the growth rate is expected to increase by 5.0 million B / D in the coming period and by another 3.6-million B / D for a total of 101 million b / d.

Concerns over the outbreak and growing risks in the Delta alternatives, implications for oil demand and market risks are fueling continued fall in oil prices, the IIA said in a “Short Term Energy Condition” (STEO). In September.

The EIA maintained its 2022 estimate of 66.04 / b in 2021 and reduced the price of Brent crude in 2021 by 10 cents (b to 68.61 / b in 2021). At the same time, the agency expects its price target for 2021 to be reduced by 24 cents (b) to 65.69 / b to $ 6222 ($ 62.37) by 2022.

The agency’s persistent presence in global oil reserves has led to higher oil prices since the outbreak last year, but “growth in OPEC +, U.S. crude oil and other non-OPEC countries is slowing down,” he said. Global oil consumption and “oil prices will fall by 2022.

The agency added that OPEC will increase by 1.4 million B / d over 2022 and reach a total of 28.34 million B / d, which is likely to be extended by 2023 and beyond.

According to STEO, US oil production averaged 11.08 million B / d this year and will grow to 11.72 million B / d next year.

In September, STEO reduced its global oil consumption forecast by 0.21 million barrels by 2021 and 2022. Reduced consumption reflects low GDP projections and low consumption due to travel and other restrictions. The EIA stated in the review that there will be an increase in COVID-19 cases.

The agency said OPEC crude oil production fell by an average of 26.4 million B / d in 2021 and STEO by 0.1 million B / d in August, indicating that Iran’s crude oil production is expected to be lower in the second half of 221 (2H21). Expected earlier.

“OPEC expects to produce 28.3 million BDD by 2022 compared to August STEO. “We expect some producers to continue to restrict production in order to maintain a relatively balanced oil market by 2022,” he said.

Brent crude oil prices averaged $ 71 a barrel in August, down from $ 4 in July 2020 ($ 26). Brent prices rose sharply last year, averaging 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of 2021 (1H21), according to EAA.

In the fourth quarter of 2021 (4Q21), we expect the average Brant prices to remain close to current levels. A.D. In 2022, he expects OPEC, US oil and other non-OPEC countries to reduce global oil consumption by an average of $ 66 / b.

Isaac John

He is the Editor-in-Chief of Khaleej Times, a well-connected Indian journalist and economic and financial analyst. He has been a major journalist in the United Arab Emirates for 35 years, including 23 years with the Halej Times. He has a bachelor’s degree in English and economics, and has won more than two dozen awards. He is well known for his in-depth analysis of global and regional trade and economic trends, and for his in-depth understanding of the local trade scene.

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