The DNV power transition view provides a neutral view of oil and gas from 2021 to 2050

This week, DNV presents Live Energy Transfer 2021 live. This predicts the outcome of a free and reliable company. Oil and gas readers can get a better idea of ​​the global role of government policy, from fossil fuels to renewable energy, future oil and gas supplies and liquid hydrogen conversion.

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Below are the highlights of the two-hour program. To effectively score high scores, I did not include the full features, as they can be found in the reports.

Energy policy is key. For example, China is a leading investor in the transition, from purchasing small amounts of steel to solar and battery construction.

Norway aims to reduce GHG emissions by 50-55% by 2030 and decorbonize fossil fuels. They have an innovative culture of shipbuilding, offshore wind power, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). The country has successfully mobilized EVS to make 60% of the new cars sold.

Global warming requires cooperation between nations, because it is a global problem, but there is a short window to action. Norway supports countries at risk, but says 12 of the 20 countries most at risk of global warming are involved in violent conflict. So climate change safety is important.

DMV President Remy Erickson said Norway is a model for the European Green Agreement and is seeking partnerships with other countries. One of the great challenges is that there are so many laws and regulations that should be uniform among nations.

The DNA prognosis (Figure 1) does not improve for 5 years in the ratio of fossil and renewable energy. But after that, GHG will fall by 45% by 2030 by 930 and by 2050. But by 2050, GHG emissions per year will be up to 20 Gt / yr per year and long distances from real-zero emissions- and far from carbon storage (CCS) to bury the “leftovers” underground and bring the world to zero. To deliver zero.

On the positive side. 25% of the world’s electricity is now renewable and growing on a good clip – transport is a big factor in this. Wind and sun are expected to be almost equal by 2050 (Figure 2). Coal will only be extinguished by 2050, but gas-fired power plants and by 2050 will still be 22%.

Future oil and gas supplies. Globally, oil and coal supplies are projected to fall permanently after 2025 (Figure 3). But natural gas will remain a fossil fuel until 2050.

But by 2050, 85% of the gas will not be decommissioned. The remaining 15% comprises biomethane and natural gas supply with CCS to offset carbon.

Personal energy efficiency. A.D. By 2019, DNV projects in Europe will fall by 133 GJ per person by 2050 to 95 GJ per person. This could be an “unsung hero”.

Sectors that are difficult to weaken. These are shown in Figure 4 and the worst is the industrial temperature. Examples are steel and cement production. Although total GHG emissions will be reduced by 45% between 2019 and 2050, the sectors that are difficult to underestimate will be about half of the remaining emissions.

Liquid hydrogen. This will be only 5% of all forces by 2050, as it will usually come to market too late. Hydrogen is expensive now, and It will take until 2033 to equalize solar and wind prices in 2010-2015. Prices will definitely fall, but if 2020 is a reference point, hydrogen will take its price by 2020 until 2045. It seems to be a very slow matter.

The DNV president concluded by emphasizing the need to increase the 1.5C temperature target in Paris, accelerate the electrification of renewable energy and accelerate hydrogen production.


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