Solar boom supply chain problem | OilPrice.com

Grid equity, dynamic networks, and strategic partnerships have increased the world’s solar panel production capacity by 330 GW by mid-2021 in recent years. Restad energy analysis shows that according to the Paris Agreement, the capacity to meet the maximum load required to meet the conditions of 1.5 ° C by 2050 should be quadrupled to 1,200-1,400 GW by 2035. Due to rising costs and the fact that VV-19 is now being reduced by manufacturers, this can be a daunting task: events that could discourage investment to expand capacity. The total sum for solar modules (difference between manufacturer capacity and load) It was 84% ​​in 2018, and since then 71 to 2019 and 58% by 2020, logistical efficiency and transportation have been disrupted by the epidemic. Most parts of the world. The distribution of CVD-19 has caused a major economic downturn in the market and is expected to affect consumption levels by 2021.

It has been challenging to reduce solar costs in the short or medium term, as prices have risen for some input over the past few months. In recent years, the cost of solar projects has dropped dramatically, but the cost reduction has now moved closer to the floor and the floor, and is now explained by the cost of inputs such as labor, polycystic, silver, copper, aluminum and steel. .

Related: Hurricanes increase the risk of oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico These input factors showed a clear increase in prices in 2020 and 2021. The key element in photovoltaic panels mono-polycystic is expected to increase from $ 7.6 per kilogram in 2019 to $ 9 per kilogram in 2020, and by 2021 per kilogram the average silver needed to connect silicon cell to copper wires by 2019 per kilogram. G increased from $ 550 in 2021 to $ 850 per kilogram (average).

Combined result of all input factors Global solar panel prices By 2021, by 2021, it has increased by 16%. Significant inflation for solar projects, including labor – from installation and other equipment to construction, is on the rise. Total Expenses – Total spending has increased by 12%, which could limit demand for the next few years.

“The whole industry is facing a shortage of raw materials and supplies, especially polysilicon and silver. Restrictions related to VV-19 have not only led to a shortage of essential raw materials but also to higher prices, which has led to lower shipments and increased incomes for industry participants, ”he said.

Decreasing the volume of minerals and metals may be key to increasing production capacity and solving supply chain challenges, Martinson added.

In the long run, the solar industry must continue to build capacity and fight inflation to achieve its climate change goals. In order to maintain global temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius, solar panel manufacturers must grow 10% annually to meet the required 1,200-1,400 GW modular production capacity by 2035.

Related: Chip shortages worsen as automated giants flee

Modular capacity has grown at the same rate in the past, however, the current shortage of essential raw materials such as polycystic, silver and glass and the increase in the price of auxiliary raw materials, a 10% increase will be a major power goal for solar companies. In fact, By 2035, the solar PV industry already had 10% of its global silver production and should have earned seven times more than it does today.

Instead, limiting global warming to 1.7 ° C is more accessible than current supply restrictions. With enough capacity for another eight years, this should give more time to expand the production capacity of solar power companies. To meet the 1.7 ° C temperature, companies must be able to increase their production capacity by 1000-1,200 GW by 2045, still using large amounts of silver and polycrystalline, within a time frame of supply.

By Restad Energy

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