Round Numbers Magic: European gas reaches € 20, € 30, € 40 and now its 50.

When a commodity reaches another price level, the number of news stories on that particular product increases dramatically. Last week, a series of € 60 / CO2e and € 50 / MWh hit European carbon offsets and natural gas. But the former was in practice between May and August, and the latter was growing in the last four months as soon as it reached the high-speed train.

Between the pipeline flows and the LNG tight supply, gas price growth accelerated during the summer only. The TTF front-end contract at the end of August took only 22 trading days to grow from € 40 / MWh to € 50 / MWh, compared to ቀናት 30 / MWh to € 40 / MWh and close to 50 days. To cover the distance between € 20 / MWh and € 30 / MWh.

During the summer, all three rounds have been passed, highlighting the special importance of this year’s Q2 and Q3 for shaping the pricing environment for the next several months. UGSs still do not have volumes and players are worried about the market balance in the short term. If summer’s stockpile is partially offset by further stockpiles for European supply, there is little hope for a happy ending as winter approaches.

With Norway’s output limited to planned repairs, the September gas market is no less promising than a new wave of problems. In the current situation, are European gas prices just skyrocketing?

The opinions expressed in this blog are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer

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