as if Nathaniel Bulaard On 9/30/2021
WASHINGTON (Bloomberg) – Two of Big Big’s biggest players have cut short their long-term energy vision this week – French energy company Total Energy and Petroleum Exporters. Twenty-five years later, they offer a wide variety of world visions. The European Union (EU) is looking at the future of technology and policy; Cartol presents a vision that is similar today.
Total Energy is not just about oil, it is about all energy needs, and it shows that Europe’s long-term corporate energy planners are now well-known: renewable energy will continue to expand rapidly. Demand for oil and coal will fall; And the growing demand for natural gas will be key to energy transfer. Even with a timeline of decades, details are important. Let’s take a closer look at two scenarios: Total shows the power transition – momentum and somewhat surprisingly named Rup.
Momentum, notes, are “based on zero zero 2050 decarbonation strategies in 2060, China will achieve carbon neutrality by 2060” and include the stated climate goals and national resolutions of other countries based on the Paris Agreement. This condition, the initial expectation, will rise from 2.2 to 2.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Disintegration is even more violent: it expects countries to comply with the Paris Agreement with more than zero pledges, strong public policy, technological advances and a new world power system.
Momentum will create barriers to oil and coal demand in the future (on the other hand, gas will continue to grow). Demand for oil will increase in these ten years. In the Rupture scene, fuel demand by 2050 will be 60% less than 2019. Demand for coal has already risen and gas demand continues to grow.
OPEC, surprisingly, differs in oil. It sets four conditions, only one has a technology lens. Oil cartels will see demand rise in one direction, rise in another, and in another by 2030. The only downside to the 2019 rankings is the aggressiveness, the accelerated policy and the technology issue.
Looking for the top
OPEC’s energy transfer-oriented approach allows for more aggressive policies, but does not specify. Vocabulary search actually shows that the “net zero” in the 340 pages is actually zero. Technological advances play no role in the vision, but it does provide an opportunity to quickly embrace existing technology.
New research from Oxford Martin School of Economics suggests that OPEC’s technology will significantly reduce transportation costs. The researchers examined the actual and planned costs for 50 different energy technologies, and found that most models consistently over-estimated costs and underestimated renewable technologies. On the other hand, solar, wind, and batteries have been declining by approximately 10% per year for decades. Today’s energy technology should simply move at that speed to change tomorrow’s energy system.
This is what Oxford researchers see as possible. Their “rapid transition” situation suggests that “renewable energy and storage technologies will replace fossil fuels in two decades and maintain their current deployment rate for ten years. Its “slow transition” situation now calls for an immediate reduction in current renewable growth as fossil fuels are controlled until mid-December. In the case of “no transition,” each type of energy grows in proportion to its current share. This is basically the worst case scenario, according to the authors.
“No transition” seems to be what OPEC expects – today, more. But this does not suggest that this study is based on decades of observation. And companies like Total Energy are not expecting it, even as their standard of living has recently increased demand for oil, which has been declining sharply since the middle of the century.