Natural gas futures promise back, but Cooldown ends this weekend

Future prices for natural gas returned on Tuesday due to warming up and slight changes in supply / demand. September Nymex gas futures rose $ 4.089, up 2.9 cents from Monday’s close. He raised 2.8 cents to reach $ 4.103 in October.

At a glance:

  • Recent predictions to cool down quickly
  • The power burns strong
  • Expanded heat increases cash flow

Spot gas prices have also strengthened in most centers, with recent forecasts showing high levels in the United States in the 90s and 100s. NGIP spot gas national average. 5.5 cents rose to $ 4,115.

Although summer dog days are getting shorter, this week’s heat is expected to be a bit colder. The hot weather has led to earlier and future prices. As for the September Nimex contract, it initially reached a high of $ 4,126, but returned at noon and was slightly higher than Monday.

Unlike most seasons, with the extreme heat accumulating in the western United States, this week’s tragedy is set to cover the east coast. Temperatures are forecast for the 90s to Friday, a significant difference compared to last week’s initial clues, Aquauter reports. At the same time, high humidity can cause temperatures to rise to about 10 degrees Fahrenheit[10 ° C].

AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said: “The heat and humidity in the Northeast will continue throughout the night, with the worst heat in the Interstate-95 corridor in the city this week.”

Not to be outdone, the western world is particularly hot, especially in the northwest. AccuWeather said it could hit 105 degrees a day in Portland, OR, on Friday. This is more than the previous record of 101 degrees set in 2002.

According to AccuWeather meteorologist Jessica Hurricane, the temperature in the northwest is expected to reach 15 degrees Fahrenheit[15-25 ° C]. By the beginning of August, 63% of the Western world was in the grip of a severe drought.

“Extreme drought conditions make it easier for wildfires to recover than if they were frozen and filled,” he said. As of early Tuesday, about 48 major wildfires were burning in 48 states and 76 in the northwest alone, according to the National Intelligence Agency.

Some relief from temperatures in the northwest may begin early next week. According to forecasts, the dome is designed to move away from the environment.

Meanwhile, demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) remains high. NGI data on Tuesday show the delivery of food gas to US terminals below 9.5 BCF. Volume reduction is mainly due to maintenance at the Sabin Pass and Cameron LNG terminals.

Strong fires were calm, which Bespoke Weather Services said was surprising in terms of strong winds. The forecast indicated that the wind should die by the end of the week, although it could increase the risk of power outages.

The Mobies disaster team has shown resilience in the face of power outages. So far, the gas used to generate electricity so far in August was less than 2 BCC / D compared to the same nine-day period last year. This is especially important given the fact that this time frame is independent of the total population cooling days and is especially considering the colder year-round temperature on the Gulf Coast.

The Energy Information Administration (AIA) also said that despite the high prices, natural gas reserves in the electricity sector remain. Demand for U.S. electricity increased by 3.9 BCF / D in July, according to the AIA.

Natural gas is exported through pipelines and LNG. , And in July it rose to 18.2 BCF / D from 17.8 BCF / D in June, the EIA reported. At the same time, dry gas production decreased to 92.5 BCF / D from 92.7 BCF per month.

From a basic point of view, according to Mobius, the gas market is “very quiet.” Minor and temporary failures in LNG food gas are often corrected by immersion in Canadian importers. In addition, daily production data remains generally flat over a period of several months. Therefore, the pendulum is swinging almost exclusively on weather forecasts.

To that end, forecasts indicate the coldest weather in most of the United States since the weekend. Tropical activity also begins to increase.

Violence at the National Hurricane Center is expected to continue in the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico until Tuesday night. He then predicted Wednesday to travel to the southeastern Bahamas and the Turkish and Caicos Islands on Thursday to Hispaniola. However, the maximum sustained winds were only 35 miles / h, and no well-closed broadcast was found in NHC. However, the violence had a 90% chance of progressing in the next two days and could be brought to Florida in the next few days.

At the macro level, the US economy continued to grow after the EIA reached a two-year low in the second quarter of 2020. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 3.5% in 2020, but is expected to grow by 6.6 percent. By 2021% and by 2022 by 5.0%. EIA based US macroeconomic estimates based on IHS Markit forecasts.

He said the agency was in a state of “uncertainty” related to the recovery of the HIV-19 epidemic. There are mixed signs of how the Delta variant of the CV-19 virus is affecting the economy. Some companies have chosen to ask their employees for immunizations, which will help keep up with the latest alternatives and open up businesses. However, U.S. and international air travel has been slowing down due to an increase in issues.

“Our forecast is for continued economic growth and growth,” he said. Any developments that lead to displacement from these estimates may deviate from our forecast of energy consumption and prices.

Shiny cash

As temperatures continue to rise, Northeast and California markets are once again making a profit in the cash market.

Ten Zone 6,200 L The next day gas averaged $ 4,525, up 44.5 cents a day. Transco Zone 6, NY, 12.5 cents rose to $ 4,040

California’s Social Border Average It rose to $ 5,695 by 21.5 cents.

Prices in rockets were slightly fluctuating during the day, but losses at most price points were minimal. However, Kingsget fell from 20.0 cents to $ 3,610 for Wednesday’s gas day.

During the construction of the pipeline, the KRGT pumped out power at the Vyo Compressor Station in southwestern Utah on Sunday. Labor began blocking flows to 143 MMcf / d on Monday. KRGT said that an unexpected mechanical failure at the compressor station reduced the operating capacity of the compressor to 2,203 MMcf / d. According to Wood McKenzie, the flow rate through Vivo over the past 30 days has averaged 2,283 MMcf / d and 2,346 MMcf / d.

Meanwhile, Nova Gas Transmission Limited (NGTL) began repairs on Tuesday at the Berland River Compressor Station in Alberta. This could affect approximately 565 MMcf / d of solid transit receipts and uninterrupted transit supplies on gas days through Friday.

Elsewhere, Cove points were flat at $ 4,165, while Henry Hub was down 5.0 cents to $ 4,110 on low LNG demand. Most other pricing centers in Louisiana and Southeast have strengthened day by day.

Consumer prices rose from 2.0 cents to $ 3,985, and Trace Palacios moved from $ 7.0 cents to $ 4,055.

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