Natural gas futures fall below $ 5 in early November – Natural Gas Intelligence

Cold weather is not a long-term forecast, and natural gas is making its future worse. Despite high international prices, the November Nimex gas futures fell 42.1 cents to live on 4.989 / MMBtu. In December, it dropped 36.4 cents to $ 5.236.

At a glance:

  • Climate models have not yet shown cold
  • Global factors affecting US prices
  • The lower 48 storage decks are designed to be solidified

Spot gas prices also continued to slide, along with NGI spot gas national average. Slide 15.5 cents to $ 4,955.

Even though winter was just a few weeks away, it was hard to come up with even a brief burst of cold air. Weather models rolled back and forth over the weekend, but generally maintained a tiring outlook until early November. A short cold forecast is expected for the Great Lakes and Northeast over the coming weekend, but temperatures are expected to rise again soon.

“We suspect there is a greater risk of ups and downs, given the very poor weather and adequate storage,” said Bezpock Weather Services.

However, Friday’s price was “a little surprising” as there was no change in the weather on Friday. He added, “We are only at this stage of the game in mid-October.”

Some international factors may have contributed to the protests against US gas prices. European gas prices rose on Monday as Russian giants Gazprom failed to bid on the PGCC. Without more gas flows from Russia, European supply is still a concern, perhaps because prices could be higher than at current levels to attract more liquid natural gas (LNG) for the winter.

[Want to know how global LNG demand impacts North American fundamentals? To find out, subscribe to LNG Insight.]

Mizuho Securities USA LL Robert Yagger, Future Director of Energy, said this will be a step to increase flexibility in the coming weeks. “At the very least, Gazprom had to find some gas to sell in the local market, perhaps at the big sign.”

He noted that the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, built in Germany, would transport natural gas to Germany. The pipeline is already leaking, and volumes are expected to increase as the system is commissioned.

However, significant control barriers remain for the congested system. Among them is the need to comply with EU laws that differentiate ownership of natural resources and natural gas supplies. For Gazprom’s integrated structure, the regulation may be complicated.

“If Europeans want more gas, all they have to do is approve the pipeline,” he said. Until then, expect European gas prices to remain high.

Are global issues important to American values?

Despite foreign drama, the auction in European gas prices has done nothing but tame the future of Nimex, which is selling fast after noon. Shortly before he reached that stage, his November contract fell to $ 4,962.

Bespock, for its part, is still in a hurry to fully recover from the situation in Europe, but every hot week in the United States brings the market closer to such a displacement. Low 48 supplies “are not as easily endangered as they are there.”

“Without this, LNG

In addition, with prolonged warmer climates, colder weather is expected to be the best form of U.S. storage. Although wind turbines have proven to be a key indicator of how much gas is going into storage, overall mild weather is good for U.S. supplies.

According to the Energy Information Administration (IAA), it has stopped at 3,369 Bcf since October 8, still below the five-year average of 501 Bcf and 174 Bcf a year ago.

Preliminary estimates prior to the next EIA report indicate construction in the 80-90 Bcf range. NGI predicted 95 BCF storage capacity. This compares with 49 BCF injections and 69 BCF in the five-year average.

“Now that we have the warmth of November, we know that there will still be wild boar, and we will end up risking prices,” Bespock said.

Drip money prices

In most parts of the country, demand for heating or cooling has continued, and space gas prices have continued to decline. There were some exceptions as some of the cold weather continued on the West Coast. Temperatures in California and Nevada are expected to be below 15 degrees Fahrenheit[15 ° C].

The National Weather Service (NWS) said the forecast is expected to follow from the Great Basin to the Great Basin by Monday to late Monday. He predicted that the hurricane would move east toward the Rockies by Tuesday and eventually reach the Great Plains. Low altitudes can expect heavy rainfall, and mountainous regions can receive up to two feet of snow by early Wednesday.

With more coastal rainfall and mountain snowfall in the northeast near the Pacific Tuesday evening until Wednesday, there is no other western system in the west.

Cool air raises prices throughout the region. KRGT Rec Pool The next day, gas prices jumped from $ 25.0 cents to $ 5,485. Baja rose to $ 5,710 by 34.5 cents.

Prices at SoCal Citygate rose from $ 1,265 to $ 6,915.

Elsewhere across the country, spot gas prices have fallen sharply from last week’s levels.

Henry Hub’s cash fell 38.5 cents to $ 5,075, and Rex Zone 3 dropped 33.0 cents to $ 4,740. In Apalchia and Northeast, prices are also low, but losses are not very low. Transco Zone 6 NY dropped 11.5 cents to $ 4,485.

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