Natural gas continues to rise to around $ 4 in the last weeks of summer |

For the past five months, traders have been paying a high price for their disobedience.

Like a broken record, they will continue to hear that the rally will soon be reduced, with gas prices falling from $ 4 levels to $ 3.

But in less than four weeks until harvest time, we have not seen the need for summer cooling in the United States. And futures will continue to dominate Wall Street as tech and growth stocks.

The EIA, or Energy Information Administration, may report another gas injection last week, and market bears may expect a few more weeks for any reversal.

Houston-based gas market consultant Gelber and associate analyst Dan Myers broke the company’s customers in an email Wednesday

“Decreased wind production ሏል has led to greater reliance on natural gas during storage weeks, resulting in lower temperatures than last week despite general temperatures.

The average 5-year delay in reserve needles is expected to be somewhat similar in the coming weeks. By the first week of September, at least to the first full week.

According to the consensus of the surveyed analysts, A surplus of 40 billion cubic feet of energy was added to storage last week, surplus from energy production and cooling.

That will be below the 46 BCF in store last week until August 13, and the five-year average (2016-2020) will be lower than 44 BCF.

If correct, the injection would end on August 20 and take stock to 2.862 tcf or trillion cubic feet – about 5.9% below the five-year average and 16.2% in the same week a year ago.

For most of the year, the increase in average gas production and loading has resulted in a dramatic increase in fuel prices.

At the New York Business Forum on Wednesday, Henry Hub’s first-month gas price at mmBtu, or $ 3,925, was not much changed.

If the gas continues in its current direction, it could rise 1.5% per week and remain in the positive range for the fourth week. Each month, Henry Hub’s futures rose steadily since the end of March, during which time they gained more than 51%.

Natural gas forward curve

Natural gas forward curve

Source – Gelber & Associates

This week’s gas depletion comes as last week’s temperature readings were slightly lower than usual this year at 88 CDDs or 83 degrees Celsius in 30 years on cooling days.

CDDs used to estimate demand for cooling homes and businesses, the average daily temperature is over 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).

Preliminary analysts’ estimates ranged from 23 bcf to 44 bcf, an average of 31 bcf, between this week and August 27.

That compared to 36 BCF in the same week last year and 36 BCF in five years.

The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday that the low-pressure system in the Caribbean could turn into a tropical depression this weekend and could be a hurricane next week.

According to the NCHH, it poses a threat from Mexico to the Gulf.

The hurricane could bring cold winds and reduce the need for cooling, offset production shortages, according to Besspock’s analysis of natural gas canal.

Bespock also said that forecasts for next week are expected to cool in early September.

“As we move beyond the opening of September, we will still see a decline to normal, or even below the five-year average,” said the forecast.

However, it is expected to be “temporary cooling” and the overall September weather conditions are expected to be relatively warm.

Adding distrust, Wood McKenzie said on Wednesday the latest daily plumbing estimates fell 1.8 BCF per day. Dry gas production decreased by 91.2 BCF in the lower 48 U.S. states, below the peak of around 93 Bcf / d earlier this summer.

The decline is concentrated in Texas, New Mexico and Wyoming and has been linked to pipeline advertising, said Laura Munder, a wood McKenzie analyst. The El Paso Natural Gas (EPNG) system cited a series of locations earlier this month following a power outage in pipeline 2000.

Meanwhile, summer temperatures are declining sharply on Wednesday and are expected to rise by the end of the 48th week of trading. Such conditions often prevail over the summer.

Due to the high demand for refrigeration, the EAA reported relatively small storage needles throughout the summer. Ahead of Thursday’s report – which covers the week of August 20 – estimates are once again working below historical averages, noted.

Disclaimer Barrani Krishna uses different perspectives outside of himself to make a difference in any market analysis. For neutrality, it sometimes presents conflicting views and market variables. It has no place in the goods and guarantees it writes.

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