In the face of a power crisis, China may have “little choice” to increase its coal consumption

September 28, 2021 Winging at the Wi-Fi Coal-Power Station in Shanghai, China.

Hector Retamal | AFP | Getty Images

Analysts say China may have to abandon its plans to reduce carbon emissions at least in the short term to alleviate the escalating energy crisis.

Like other markets in Asia and Europe, China needs to strike a balance between the urgent need to turn on the lights – more than coal – and its commitment to increasingly desiccine targets. Power Consultant Wood McKenzie.

“But the short-term reality is that China and many others have little choice but to increase their consumption of coal to meet their energy needs,” Thomson said in a report.

But the short-term reality is that China and many others have little choice but to increase their consumption of coal to meet their energy needs.

Gavin Thompson

Vice-Chairman of Asia-Pacific, Wood Mackenzie

China’s environmental targets

Chinese President Xi Jinping announced last year that China’s carbon emissions will begin to decline by 2030 and that the country will reach carbon neutrality by 2060. Release of carbon dioxide.

To achieve those goals, China has introduced a “dual control” policy that requires provinces to limit energy use and reduce energy consumption: the amount of energy used per unit of domestic production.

In mid-August, the Chinese Economic Planning Agency announced that in the first half of 2021, at least one of the two provinces could not meet its target.

Last month, the agency updated its “dual control” policy with more stringent measures — and in part It has contributed to widespread power distribution throughout the province.

Strict implementation of those goals will reduce China’s economic growth by between 1 and 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, according to Barclays research. So Chinese officials could relax both targets this year, according to Barclays economists.

“With three months to go, we think it will be very difficult to achieve this ‘double control’ goal this year,” he said in a statement.

“We think the government is more likely to pursue a more flexible approach to its goals, as growth has slowed down in the past and is more likely to withstand the winter than usual,” he said.

Coal ‘Increases Significantly’

That, some say, could include easing restrictions on imports of coal in Australia Analysts.

“The ban on importing coal from Australia … has exacerbated domestic coal shortages,” Barclays economists said.

Australia In 2019, China was the largest supplier of coal and accounted for 39 percent of China’s total imports.

Barclays expects China to “significantly increase” imports of coal, especially from coal exports, in the fourth quarter.

Last year, China stopped importing coal from Australia. Bilateral relations between the two countries have deteriorated after Australia called for an international inquiry into the treatment of VV-19.

In recent weeks, China has begun releasing Australian coal, which has been closed to Chinese ports, Reuters reported. About one million tons of Australian coal has been stored in warehouses along China’s coast, the news agency reported.

Add to Renew Toddlers?

Increasing coal consumption will help China avoid prolonged energy shortages and severe economic downturn. But that will come at the expense of the country’s goal of reducing carbon emissions – at least for the time being, analysts say.

Wooden McKenzie Thompson Such a balanced move may be “uncomfortable” for China.

Like many other countries, China is preparing for the COP26 Climate Change Summit in Glasgow, Scotland. At the November Summit, world leaders and environmentalists will adapt to individual emission targets and the effects of climate change.

Chepson said the country will not build new coal projects, adding that China’s high coal consumption will also come.

Thousands pledged at the UN General Assembly last month on foreign coal projects.

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Increasing the supply of coal is not a sustainable solution, as carbon emissions need to be reduced in the long run, says Morgan Stanley.

That means China and other Asian economies could accelerate investment in renewable energy, according to Wall Street Bank. A.D. As of August, China was already transferring about 69% of its investment in wind and hydropower to an average of three months.

“Therefore, we expect a steady stream of renewable investments in the coming years,” the bank said in a statement.

Recent shortcomings need to provide additional incentives for local governments to accelerate their plans.

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