A.D. China’s nuclear delay in 2010 – 2020 showed strong gains for wind and sun
A.D. I have made it clear that China’s record of wind and nuclear generation in 2014 could be more measurable. A.D. I returned to the subject in 2019 and reviewed the wind, sun and nuclear generation TWh, stating that wind and sun are much larger than the total annual generation and predicting that the two renewable generations will be 4 times more powerful. Between them every year in 2030 General Nuclear TWh. Mea culpa: In the 2019 review, I have maximized my experience in wind farming in China, which still holds American experience, but has improved significantly in a few years.
My concept of expansion has not changed – Large-scale economies for the production and distribution of wind and solar panels, combined with the enormous construction potential of those technologies, will always be able to operate at full capacity and speed. And is larger than the mega-projects of the GH-scale nuclear power plants. This It was clear in 2014 that It was true in 2019, and it is clearly visible today. In addition, my point was that deploying both as a national strategy (perfect for nuclear success) and as having the potential and desire to abolish environmental regulations and any form of NIMBYism was a perfect natural experiment for this review. It is not possible to use another country to easily evaluate which technologies can be deployed faster.
In March of this year, I was updating the WWEA USA + Canada wind turbine as part of the WWEA regular round of international analysts in various geographical areas. My report was not surprising. In the 2020 update, the focus was on the impact of COVID-19 on wind deployment around the world. My update focused on the energy compensation components of wind construction contracts, and I expected Canada and the United States to significantly lose expectations. The story is very similar in other geographies. And that was true for Canada, the United States, and most geographical areas.
But China She surprised the world by 2020, with much more than expected, but only 48 GW of wind power, including 48 megawatts of solar power. Wind deployment is a record for China and the world, with solar turnover more than 50% last year. In the meantime, exactly zero nuclear power plants will be delivered by 2020.
So, I return to my analysis of China’s low carbon emissions by looking at the potential capacity and the additional generation each year.
I have gathered this additional capacity from many sources, including the World Nuclear Association, the Global Wind Energy Council and the International Energy Agency’s photovoltaic material. In the 11 years from 2010 to 2020, China did not place any nuclear generation on the grid. It is growing more this year, but the year is not over.
Solar and wind programs began in the mid-2000s, and wind turbines initially saw significant deployment. Since I have paid more attention to wind power than the sun for the past decade, I am amazed that solar energy deployments have surpassed wind energy in 2017 and 2018, and there is no doubt why the sun wants to double China’s 2020 target for technology. Nuclear goals were greatly delayed, and there was no hope of achieving them. A.D. By 2019, China will have significantly higher targets for wind and sun, and lower its nuclear prospects.
But naming capacity is not as important as the actual generation. According to the Mae Copa, China’s wind power is relatively low. This It was reviewed in 2018 by the European and North American researchers in the journal Environmental Studies.
Our findings suggest that the biggest difference between real performance and technical capacity in China is due to grid connection delays (14% gap) and grid handling limit (10% gap). ), Two challenges to China’s wind power expansion are widely covered in his writings. However, our findings show that China’s low performance is also due to the low turbine model choice (31% gap), wind farm seat (gap 23%) and turbine center height (6% gap) – little attention has been paid to literature and especially to wind farm lifelong They are locked.
Some capacity issues are locked, and some are not, but China’s total wind power is still below US ships. At the beginning of the decade, I adjusted the wind power to 21%, and up to 26% for 2020 deployment, still below US experience. The sun, on the other hand, is less susceptible to some of the challenges posed by that wind generation, and the average Chinese with 20% experience has been used for decades. Chinese nuclear ships have better capabilities to connect to the grid, and as the power plants are new, they are not yet offline for major repairs. The average capacity of 91.1% of ships has been used for decades.
And this is a fairy tale. Although it has been adapted to the poor capacity of the wind and even above average global capacity, nuclear ships have not produced a more accurate generation than wind power. The story is more mixed in the history of the sun and nuclear, but in the last five years more nuclear generation has been added to the TWh than in the nuclear program. And as a reminder, China’s wind and solar deployment programs are in full swing. In 1994, more than a decade after the first grid-related nuclear program began.
Interestingly, over the past two years, there has been a reversal of wind and solar deployment in China. In 2019 and 2020, TWh is more than twice as many as the real generation in the wind-blown TWh. To be clear, some of this has been improved by eliminating federal subsidies for solar, commercial, solar and coastal wind projects by 2021 and then announcing them.
The new law, which takes effect on August 1, will lead to a sharp drop in the cost of renewable energy for solar and wind power in China.
Just as U.S. deployments have seen significant increases and delays due to changes in product tax credit, this seems to be motivating China 2020 windmills to receive compensation. It is estimated that the proposed wind turbine capacity is not yet fully operational. However, that should not change the potential for the coming years, and therefore I have abandoned the planned supply of 120 TWh as wind farms set for 2020.
It should be noted that as of today, 7 of the 10 largest wind turbine manufacturers and 9 of the 10 largest solar power plants are Chinese companies. As I pointed out a few years ago, China is the sole producer of many technologies needed for decarbonation. In addition, it is rapidly expanding its market share in those technologies.
My 2014 theory continues to be supported by natural disasters in China. In my recent review of small-scale nuclear power plants (tl’dr: bad idea, not going to work), it became clear to me that China’s rapid deployment to nuclear power was in a state of disarray. One of the many reasons why SMRs are not being deployed in any large numbers is that they are expanding their collection of technologies more than just single technology.
Wind and sun will be the primary suppliers of low carbon energy for the next century, and when we choose everything, electrons come from wind and sun, and efficiently, efficiently and low energy models do not pollute or cause global warming. The good news is that these technologies are clearly promising to help us cope with climate change.
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