Future prices of natural gas will rise when Ida closes in Gulf Coast production – Natural Gas Intelligence

Arriving in the Stars Friday, the future of natural gas rises for the second day in a row as the LNG, leading a hurricane, exports to the Gulf. The Nimex September contract rolled $ 18.370 a day and $ 47,3 cents a day in the last two sessions for $ 4,370. In October, futures rose $ 4.388, up 17.7 cents from Wednesday’s close.

At a glance:

  • GOM production closed
  • Storage slides are widely available
  • It collects cash on long-term heat

Although temperatures were set to rise in the coming days, spot gas prices also fell to a minimum of 48. NGI spot gas national average. 12.5 cents to $ 4,285.

With the recent release of a government warehouse report, traders appear to be still struggling with the worst of the winter. The Energy Information Administration (EAA) ‘s report on approximately 29 BCF investments for the week ending August 20, in addition to estimates prior to the report, also saw the construction gap widen to an average of five years. % 6% in the past.

Analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt and Company (TF) blamed 14 BCFs for most of the construction below the South Central Region compared to the 5 BCF standard. The group reported a week-on-week change in stocks for a number of reasons, including a low demand for power generation below 40 BC / D. As a result of this addition to Mexico, it was reduced to around 7 BCF / D. According to the PHP, demand for LNG food gas has also strengthened, with 0.8 BCF per week.

In the 22 weeks of the injection season, the stock group traded up 2,208 TCs last winter. In the region, after losing only 3 BCF in the last two weeks, the South Central Salt Utilities reported a significant 15 BCF drop. In the last three months, 73 BCF or 17% more than usual has been towed from the region.

However, due to a strong 152 BC injection over the past four months, this year’s net worth of 79 BCF is higher than the five-year average of 58 BCF (276%) and 35 BCF (80%). But last year, CVD-increased speeds were below 27 BC (25%), ”said Shark analysts. “This region is projected to start wintering below 298 Bcf, 47 Bcf or 13.6% below the five-year average.

Regarding the next IAA report, the first model of TFP will lead to the construction of 27 BCF, which will be more difficult compared to the five-year average of 60 BCF injections. The TF analysts said on Friday that data from the week to date has increased demand for power to around 2 Bcf / d and has continued to strengthen in LNG exports.

NGI data shows the supply of food gas to US LNG terminals below 11 B.C. on Friday.

In Crosshairs

Concerns about LNG, which accounts for about 10% of the country’s gross domestic product, have recently been monitored by Louisiana’s export agencies. On Friday, a slight transition from the east caused the storm to hit central Louisiana. But hurricanes can change direction quickly.

The National Hurricane Center (NCA) says Ida will approach the Central Gulf coast on Sunday afternoon. Although the Category 1 hurricane hit 75 miles / h on Friday afternoon, Ida is expected to end up in the tropics of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), possibly a major hurricane.

According to the NCH, total rainfall is between 8 and 16 inches, with a maximum of 20 inches, from southeastern Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama until early Monday. With four to eight inches of rainfall in southern and central Mississippi, Ida predicted a shift from northeast to northeast.

NatGasWeather says Louisiana has been at a “very dangerous eye wall junction” to the far east of Texas. Depression is expected to be more pronounced due to rain, strong winds, power outages and freezing. A decline in LNG exports is also expected.

“If the Cameroon LNG facility in Louisiana is not directly affected by the impact, it will depend on how much LNG food gas is reduced and how long it will depend,” said Nittas Water. He said the companies would like to see LNG continue to flow as much as possible to strengthen exports. Alternatively, you may choose to see Cameron’s sacrifice on the Sabine Pass LNG, which consumes 3.5 BCF / D.

According to NatGasWeather, this track really holds on to the new NCHH and global forecasting system forecasts. Ida also said, “She must be strong enough to inflict damage on Cameron LNG, especially if Ida’s trail shifts slightly eastward.” There could also be dangerous hurricanes and flash floods that could affect oil and gas production along the Gulf Coast, NatGasWeather said. This could include a risk of flooding from hurricanes and heavy rains to New Orleans.

By mid-afternoon, about half (48.8%) of the natural gas produced in the GOM was taken offline, according to reports. More than half of the crude production was closed, or about 58.5%, operators told the Department of Homeland Security and Environmental Protection (BEEE).

Before GOM’s natural gas production was cut off from federal waters, it averaged 1,088 Bcf / d, according to BSEE. Crude oil averaged about 1.64 million B / d. Today, GOM provides about 5% of the country’s natural gas supply and 17% of oil.

BSEE compiles operator reports before and during storm events, providing production updates. It also lists Rage and platform displacements, and operations when restarting.

As of Friday afternoon, workers had been evacuated from 89 production forums or 560 people in the GOM. Displacements occurred with a single wave (if stationary) gun or about 9% of the current 11%.

A total of 11 unsealed bakeries were also removed, or 73 out of 15 were loaded with DP. Passengers can be picked up by the rest of the board.

Cash collection

Commodity markets rallied on Friday, warning of shipping issues as production was already restricted and pipelines were closed in front of Ida. Propaganda is expected to remain strong until the weekend, and profits are high.

Daytime temperatures are expected to last through the 90s and 100s over the weekend, but the hot plateau is steamed. With the help of Ida, it is expected to weaken the coldest altitudes in most parts of the country in the 70’s and 80’s.

Wood McKenzie said Friday that several pipelines are posting hurricane-related advertisements. Deston Pipeline Company L.C. By Friday, the main passage 260 platform will be released and the Pascagola processing plant in Mississippi is expected to close. Then transportation services are not available. As a result, the LCC has warned customers that it will not be able to transport gas through its connection to the station.

On the price front, Henry Hub’s gas prices rose to an average of 4,340 by 29.5 cents for gas supply by Monday. Texas cash also strengthened, the largest increase in the western part of the state. Waha jumped from 25.0 cents to $ 4,100.

In the southeast, Transco Zone 5, the three-day gas price rose from 35.0 cents to $ 4,550.

Profits in Apalchia were small, but the 4,200 L 15.5 cents rose to $ 3,965.

Most of the northeast points were lost due to the cold weather on the way to the region. Transco Zone 6 NY cash decreased from 16.0 cents to $ 3,830 by Monday.

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