Feelings of depression are easy. But we have two big things on our side | Bill McKiben

S.Many things went wrong after the Paris Agreement was signed in mid-December 2015. Donald Trump won his first presidential election, which was followed by foreigners like Brazil’s Jayer Bolsononaro. . The world is patient Opera Buffet Disturbing distractions, such as Brexit, and the actual paralysis of the epidemic.

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And we are still here, trembling and crowded to the true follow-up of Paris, starting October 31 in Glasgow. An international order like his, with balcony and net tape, spit on China and the United States (in the midst of the uprising), with India halfway through the ordeal, Europe without Merkel. The South has always been outraged by the North’s failure to meet its commitments to climate finance and its growing damage to countries that are doing nothing to prevent global warming. But somehow all these players have to stick together to speed up the global transformation of fossil fuels — and without them, Paris will be a huge watershed for eternal action. (And the actual high water mark rises above sea level.)

At least no one stays in the dark about the importance of the work – we have survived the hottest waves, the biggest and fastest storms, the strongest winds, the heaviest rains since Paris; We watched as both jet streams and Gulf streams began to breathe. The physical world, once the background, is now at the forefront, a stage where the drama is well-lit.

And to make the theater fun, there are two things that are broken in the right way, two things that will be a fortress for growth in Glasgow.

One is the next dramatic decline in renewable energy prices and the batteries to store it. This trend was evident in Paris at the time, but we still thought it was a new wind and sun as a precious sacrifice that was hard to believe. We understand that they are now a miracle, both in engineering and economics: last month an Oxford team completed a (uncovered) analysis: Property policy, not to mention common interests. That is, the faster we move to real renewable energy, the more money we save, and the savings are measured in “trillions of dollars.”

And the second lucky break is the next dramatic increase in the amount of citizen activity that requires action. Again, this has already been seen in Paris – a year before 400,000 people protested at the United Nations, and Barack Obama said at the time, “We can’t pretend we don’t hear. We must answer the call. ” In 2009 he left Copenhagen without any agreement or political price. Transformed in Paris. But that has changed dramatically in the six years since then, especially since August 2018 when Gretta Tunberg launched her first climate strike. Today, with millions of followers, Tungberg is scattered across the planet – perhaps the largest global movement in human history.

Those two strengths come with equal strengths of strength – desire and inability.

The first, a fossil fuel lobby, has been damaged in recent years – for example, the global flooding campaign has overstaffed 15tn in gifts and portfolios, and the resistance is now building up a bit. People are experimenting with green washing in a fossil fuel lobby. But it does have a foothold in many major cities – the Republican Party is a fully owned subsidiary in the United States, which is holding back growth for the better. And the financial giants of the planet – Chase, City, Black Rock and the rest – continue to invest and make sure there is nothing wrong with the industry that is burning the earth.

Unfortunately, climate change is a serious obstacle just because it is a seasonal challenge. We will pass on important points that will not go unnoticed – a gradual win over the climate is simply another way of losing. Every massive forest fire, every hurricane strike, every month the drought exacerbates the people’s demand for change – but every neglect weakens that demand. Covid could not come at a worse time – in fact, he completely rejected these talks for the second year in a row.

So, that’s a game. We have two great forces on either side of the drama, supporting each other and looking for weakness to exploit. In the wings are old hands, pressure and examination, such as John Kerry, U.S. Climate; If the US Senate launches a severe weather plan ahead of Glasgow, it will increase its power, as did some video game characters. If gas prices continue in Europe, this will probably weaken growth opportunities.

In the end, we know which side to win, because the demand for ownership is gradually shifting to a more renewable sector, resulting in a loss of land for growing activities. But we do not know if that victory will be necessary for the time being. Glasgow, in other words, is about speed: will it accelerate change, or will things remain on a much slower path? Time tells us – it is still the most important variable.

  • Bill McKibben is an expert in the field at Merbury College, Vermont, and Climate Campaign Team 350.org.

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