1. International supply tied to meet demand next year
– US Energy Information decreases inflation forecast for 2021-2022, lows annual B21 estimate to 68.61 per barrel, and WTI low to 65.69.
– Despite the growing global demand for travel restrictions by 2021 and 2022, the EIA is projected to increase by 5 million BD this year and another 3.6 million BD in 2022. B / d.
– While OPEC will increase by 1.4 million BD in 2022, to a total of 28.34 million BD, the OPEC + agreement indicates that it will probably be extended to 2023 and beyond.
– US oil production averaged 11.08 million B / d this year, and will grow to 11.72 million B / d next year.
2. LNG variables indicate extremely high winter values
Source: Thomson Reuters
– Contrary to all current trends, LNG prices in Asia have risen to $ 20 per mmBtu.
– Hurricane Ida has already exacerbated U.S. supply issues limiting LNG exports (August saw several terminal-feeding pipes under repair), causing installation delays.
– Supply of Malaysia not being a cargo potential, supply problems continue to disrupt Asian LNG production…