Amid fears of a third wave, India’s jet fuel demand has been hit hard

Highlights

DGCA extends ban on international commercial passenger flights

In India, jet fuel production fell by more than 10% per month

India’s 2021 jet fuel demand is below 40% of 2019 levels – Platform Analysis

Due to fears of a third wave of COVID-19 infections in the country ahead of the holiday season, there are speculations that India’s aviation turbine demand will be measured by new restrictions. If issues are raised.

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When domestic travel has taken place in recent months, it may be difficult to recover. Meanwhile, international travel is largely unrestricted as many countries around the world continue to impose travel restrictions on India.

“Even though domestic flights are taking off in India, there is no point in recovering if international flights do not start,” says a business source.

Reflecting the latest developments, a statement from the country’s Civil Aviation Directorate General said the ban on international flights to India, scheduled for August 29, has been extended until September 30. However, international travel may be allowed on the chosen one. In the case of the authorities, he added.

“I think people are upset that they haven’t been able to leave the country even 1 year after the outbreak. There are some serious travel needs, and this extended travel ban has a heavy emotional impact,” said an Indian source.

Vaccination rates have increased but given India’s overall population, much remains to be done, sources said.

The Indian Ministry of Health has reported more than 350,000 active cases since September 1 and more than 430,000 deaths. Vaccination has stopped more than 650 million since September. That is approximately 46.5% of the vaccinated population.

The July information is disappointing

According to the latest data released by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, India’s jet production declined further in July.

According to PAPC data, India’s jet production in July rose from 10.39% per month to 604,000 m3 per month. This marks the fourth consecutive fall since March, with production last seen at 548,000 m in October.

According to company officials interviewed by S&P Global Platts in late July, the country’s largest state refinery, India Oil Corporation, was operating at an average speed of 91% of the nine plants, reflecting the adjustment in the race as retail demand is still high. Recovering from the effects of the second largest coronavirus outbreak in Asia.

August data still shows signs of improvement. According to preliminary data from India’s state-owned refineries, jet fuel sales rose by about 20% in August, according to S and P Global Platform’s September 1 analysis.

“However, over the past week we have been looking at COVID-19 cases every day. Significant resurgence of disease will weaken air traffic. ”

Platt analysts expect Indian kerosene demand to return 8% by 2021, but demand will still be 40% below 2019 levels.

Jet fuel prices are loaded

Before we discuss the topic of aviation rehabilitation, I think we need to reopen borders and allow vaccinated citizens to travel freely.

Meanwhile, jet fuel demand is also weak for Asia as a whole.

Asian Pacific Airlines Association, or AAP, According to a statement issued on August 26, the number of international passengers carried by regional airlines was 1.5 million in July, just 4.6% of the total. 2019.

Depression on the aviation front put pressure on the FOB Singapore Fuel Prices, which was rated at 16 cents on the September 1, 11 cents Platts Singapore Petroleum Kerosene Review. During the day, S&P Global Platts data was displayed.

The fast-moving month in the stock market expanded from September-October to 1 cent / b and was converted to Contego structure, falling 5 cents per day, according to Platt data.

AAAO Director-General Subhas Menon said: “Air travel vision is dependent on further development of vaccination across Asia and globally. “Above all, there is a need for greater cooperation between governments in line with the ICAO and WHO recommendations.” Press release.

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